Stephen Marche, the Canadian writer whose amusing
chronicle of the current state of relations between women and men, The
Unmade Bed, I recently reviewed, has written this new book, The
Next Civil War. It is one of several
recent books on the topic of the state of our politics in the United States,
and whether polarization of opinion and the formation of two warring “tribes” of
Americans must ultimately lead in the very near future to a fracturing of the nation
by force of arms.
Marche explores a variety of different triggering
scenarios for a new civil war, and uses these hypotheticals to explore a number
of possible outcomes. In the process, he
also discusses our social and political polarization, our apparent hatred for members
of the other “tribe”, the real dangers posed by the huge quantity of military-style
firearms and ammunition owned by the population, and the inevitable problems,
many of them revealed by our recent counter-insurgency disasters abroad, that might
be faced in any attempts by the central government, military and police to put
down local insurgencies.
Ironically, something similar to his first
scenario recently occurred, but it happened (of all places!) in Canada, in the
form of the truck convoy blockade and protest in the capital city of
Ottawa. And in that instance, the
Canadian government simply evoked emergency powers, and over several days
arrested some of the participants, and hauled their trucks away without
bloodshed, thereby ending the protest. The
relatively rapid response to the January 6th Capitol takeover
attempt in Washington, D.C., in terms of the large numbers of arrests and
prosecutions of participants that have occurred, is another counter-example to the sorts of
runaway rebellions Marche envisions.
Of course, you could also look to recent events
in the United States, such as several takeovers of public property in the West by
heavily armed militias a few years ago, as perhaps a more convincing model for
the sort of dangerous trigger events that Marche describes. But still.
Another question I have now, having recently read
this book, is whether the Russian invasion in Ukraine may have an unexpected effect
on our sentiments here in the U.S., in terms of moderating our passions and our
tolerance for autocracy, extreme political positions, violent resolutions to our
problems and our apparent loathing for many of our fellow citizens. And as Marche points out, even trying to
separate the United States administratively, legally and financially into
separate countries, as some separatists desire, would be a daunting if not impossible
task.
So I’m not really convinced by this whole “a new
civil war is coming” trend in the zeitgeist.
But this book is definitely an interesting thought experiment in
exploring the risks we face from our internal divisions and hostilities. Recommended.